Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 106327.916519 111989.630284 117643.195574 123708.563312 130027.720365 136413.487491 143350.523288
2025-10-12 98235.833865 106986.838345 115959.865536 125837.167233 136393.234619 147325.307864 159491.179031
2025-10-19 91797.573526 102659.427338 114031.706776 126803.504389 140723.978363 155412.954190 172061.187919
2025-10-26 86294.490158 98690.710541 111899.332278 126983.689195 143694.470301 161601.267250 182201.199091
2025-11-02 81995.903440 95633.086052 110388.398801 127485.221877 146692.711818 167547.636445 191844.946190
2025-11-09 77999.097495 92612.887182 108646.439696 127469.057560 148882.857881 172407.908178 200125.866183
2025-11-16 75290.861321 90854.555413 108145.825793 128684.472858 152313.854715 178544.688745 209758.901599
2025-11-23 72076.568902 88332.620332 106610.605428 128564.467624 154090.885248 182706.508166 217076.487245
2025-11-30 70260.566638 87324.998363 106720.875979 130252.328219 157873.996123 189110.328660 226939.294858
2025-12-07 68276.852627 86012.947983 106382.700744 131333.447069 160886.528230 194584.785362 235714.621501
2025-12-14 65873.329250 84093.412323 105233.120360 131370.116032 162600.946671 198498.857012 242644.281311
2025-12-21 63873.005942 82574.777732 104483.839065 131812.215892 164737.133316 202867.698125 250089.460099
2025-12-28 62866.400523 82246.716342 105158.000622 133974.095717 168960.105754 209762.154983 260623.202985
2026-01-04 61682.999506 81652.096830 105471.661851 135674.427528 172621.426457 216005.254687 270428.573289
2026-01-11 60173.902962 80592.337222 105165.558261 136575.627624 175286.453989 221047.400847 278811.018105
2026-01-18 58392.371113 79126.284550 104301.488803 136739.190567 177011.994128 224935.620193 285800.687944
2026-01-25 56890.066089 77961.288349 103764.441150 137265.885299 179151.904714 229309.304957 293381.516534
2026-02-01 55213.118238 76517.178999 102827.485021 137247.351153 180581.403242 232795.679991 299877.119283
2026-02-08 54230.873958 75935.883741 102950.709064 138538.252468 183626.969802 238262.906936 308819.954547
2026-02-15 52658.196546 74535.156676 101986.244297 138410.703741 184864.196089 241483.785172 314994.762306
2026-02-22 52012.791661 74330.720556 102537.325207 140203.592369 188519.453136 247711.701471 324923.631644
2026-03-01 51120.869182 73768.816004 102601.445798 141351.858016 191348.236816 252915.057542 333601.734489
2026-03-08 49798.536080 72592.341897 101831.284646 141390.802024 192739.310871 256307.899532 340021.434071